Essex Junction, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Essex Junction VT
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Essex Junction VT
Issued by: National Weather Service Burlington, VT |
Updated: 6:06 pm EDT Jul 19, 2025 |
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Tonight
 Slight Chance T-storms then Showers
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Sunday
 Showers
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Sunday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms then Slight Chance Showers
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Monday
 Mostly Sunny
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Monday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Tuesday
 Sunny
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Tuesday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Wednesday
 Mostly Sunny
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Wednesday Night
 Partly Cloudy
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Lo 64 °F |
Hi 78 °F |
Lo 56 °F |
Hi 72 °F |
Lo 53 °F |
Hi 76 °F |
Lo 54 °F |
Hi 83 °F |
Lo 66 °F |
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Tonight
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Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Low around 64. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Sunday
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Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm, then a chance of thunderstorms after 4pm. High near 78. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Sunday Night
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers between 8pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Northwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Monday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. North wind 7 to 10 mph. |
Monday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 53. North wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Tuesday
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Sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the morning. |
Tuesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Calm wind. |
Wednesday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind 3 to 7 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind around 6 mph. |
Thursday
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A 50 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 7 to 9 mph. |
Thursday Night
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A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. South wind around 6 mph. |
Friday
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A 50 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind around 7 mph becoming west in the afternoon. |
Friday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Light southwest wind. |
Saturday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Essex Junction VT.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
042
FXUS61 KBTV 191832
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
232 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Waves of showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight and last
into Sunday. Some thunderstorms during the day on Sunday may have
briefly heavy rainfall. A few stronger storms are possible,
especially in central and southern Vermont, with localized gusty
winds and frequent lightning as the primary threats. Precipitation
will come to an end Sunday night, followed by a few days of dry
weather. The next chance for showers won`t be until Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...Fast and progressive flow remains overhead
as we are sandwiched between broad cyclonic flow to our north
and and broad ridging to our south. A zonal jet will keep flow
aloft progressive and push numerous shortwaves through our area.
These vort maxima will trigger the development of waves of
showers and thunderstorms tonight into Sunday. Rainfall
overnight tonight will mainly be in the form of showers due to
limited instability, though some embedded rumbles of thunder
can`t be ruled out. The best focus for widespread
rainfall/potential for thunderstorms will be Sunday afternoon as
a cold front drops south and enhances low level convergence. By
this point, earlier showers and cloudiness will somewhat limit
instability, especially in our northern counties. Therefore,
threat for thunderstorms Sunday is quite conditional on clearing
and potential destabilization. With the moist atmosphere and
potential for earlier showers, mid-level lapse rates are
generally only marginally supportive of convection. Ensemble
mean SBCAPE from HREF ranges from 0 J/kg near the International
Border to up to 1500 J/kg in southern Vermont. Deep shear,
however, is not lacking within the progressive flow; forecast
soundings suggesting 50 to 60 knots of surface to 500 mb bulk
shear. This is on the higher end and may cause difficulty in
sustaining updrafts for any storms that do form. Overall, it
looks like the more favorable shear and instability lines up to
our south, which is concurrent with the SPC Slight Risk, which
just clips our southeastern counties. The Marginal risk extends
further northward through much of central Vermont and into the
southern portions of the Northeast Kingdom. The main hazard for
any thunderstorms that do develop will be gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall.
In terms of rainfall amounts, the forecast for a general 0.5 to 1.0
inch over much of the Adirondacks and Vermont (lesser amounts Saint
Lawrence Valley) remains on track as per latest guidance. Rainfall
amounts overnight into Sunday morning will be relatively light, then
intensities will increase Sunday afternoon as instability increases.
Can`t rule out the chance for some training thunderstorms/heavy
showers Sunday afternoon with boundary-parallel flow, which may
result in localized rainfall amounts in excess of 1.0 inches.
However, the very progressive flow aloft will limit residence time
over any given point and thus limit hydro concerns. In addition, one
hour flash flood guidance is 1.8 to 2.0+ inches per hour, which is
still well above expected rainfall rates. Nonetheless, the Weather
Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk in the Excessive
Rainfall Forecast for Sunday for much of our area outside of the
Saint Lawrence Valley, mainly in order to account for any training
that may occur. This means at least a 5% risk of rainfall exceeding
flash flood guidance within 25 miles of any given point within the
Marginal outline. We will be watching evolution of heavier showers
and storms closely, but at this time do not anticipate any
widespread hydro concerns for Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...By Sunday night, the front will have
mostly cleared our forecast area and pushed to our south. Some
residual lingering showers are possible overnight, but expecting
mainly dry conditions by sunrise Monday. Sunday night lows will
be in the 50s, with dewpoints decreasing through the night with
the arrival of cooler and drier air from the north. The
remainder of Monday will be dry with seasonably cool
temperatures topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s. Humidity
levels will be very comfortable as dewpoints drop in the to
upper 40s. Lows Monday night will be cooler as the center of the
anticyclone shifts closer to our forecast area. Expect readings
in the 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...Seasonally cool temperatures continue
Tuesday, but trending warmer through Thursday. Highs favored to warm
from the 70s Tuesday afternoon back into the mid 80 to around 90
degrees by Thursday. However, guidance may be too warm late in the
week as a frontal system approaches the region. True, model
925-850mb temperatures will be rising, but cloud cover and showers
could temper highs a few degrees Thursday keeping highs more in the
80s rather than around 90 degrees. Model frontal timing is a little
suspect and more dependent on when the ridge moves, but could see
passage Thursday night with more widespread shower chances.
Subsequent airmass favored to originate from the upper Plains of the
US, so not as cool and dry as the early week`s airmass that formed
downwind of the northern Canadian Rockies. As such, cooling will be
more limited with temperatures back to around seasonal averages to
slightly above average.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Light south/southwesterly winds and VFR
conditions will persist through 00Z with CIGs beginning to
lower as a frontal system moves into the region. Showers spread
northwest to southeast after 02Z with embedded convection. CIGs
lower MVFR after 10Z in general with winds become more variable
and shower driven. Multiple impulses moving along the surface
boundary will provide periods of forcing which will cause
thunderstorms to become more scattered at times. Intermittent
IFR possible during heavier rain with potential for lowering
CIGs again 12-16Z behind the frontal boundary. Boundary pushes
through late in the period with showers ceasing 16-20Z Sunday
from northwest to southeast.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
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